Elections are more unpredictable than ever. Recent campaigns have shocked and surprised pundits and politicians alike. This course is designed to better understand these election outcomes and to examine both the long-term and short-term factors that underpin them.

What explains the success of political outsiders and how best can mainstream parties respond? Why have recent results been so unpredictable? And how can we better track public opinion and analyse voting behaviour?

In this course we will answer these questions. More generally, this course examines the relationship between voters and political parties, and considers the theory and practice of how electors decide whether to vote (or not) and for whom to vote.

The course contains both a theoretical and an empirical component. Students will be encouraged to assess the evidence for competing explanations of voting behaviour through readings drawn from research on countries across Western Europe and North America. Besides an understanding of the main theories and main questions in the field of voting behaviour, the course will provide students with a thorough understanding of how to conduct systematic empirical research and critically appraise it.